The Aryavarth Express
Agency (West Bengal): Sharp changes in the electoral landscape of West Bengal’s Dum Dum Lok Sabha seat, compared to five years ago, might provide the necessary boost for incumbent TMC MP Saugata Roy to overcome the intensified challenge from the BJP. While a straightforward one-on-one contest between TMC and BJP could have posed a significant hurdle for Roy, the CPI(M)’s decision to field central committee member Sujan Chakraborty has introduced a triangular contest that might benefit the incumbent by diluting the saffron party’s vote share.
Poll experts suggest that the Congress-backed Chakraborty could emerge as a ‘dark horse’ with a reasonable chance of capturing the prestigious seat from the TMC if anti-Mamata Banerjee voters shift towards the Left in significant numbers.
Roy, seeking his fourth term from Dum Dum on a TMC ticket, is acutely aware of his previous narrow victory margins. In 2019, despite maintaining a similar vote percentage as in 2014, his margin of victory decreased by nearly one lakh votes due to the anti-TMC votes shifting to the BJP.
“A strong CPI(M) candidate can only somewhat halt the transfer of Left votes to the BJP, but not entirely,” Roy stated.
Political scientist Maidul Islam from the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Calcutta, noted that Dum Dum is among the 20 Lok Sabha seats where the Left-Congress alliance is expected to perform well. He suggested that a significant portion of anti-TMC Left sympathizers had voted for the BJP in the last election due to the absence of a strong alternative.
Political analyst Subhomay Maitra echoed this sentiment, stating, “The CPI(M)’s vote share is likely to increase from the previous 14 percent, which could benefit the TMC and hinder BJP’s prospects.”
In a three-cornered battle, a candidate needs to secure over 30 percent of the votes to win. Maitra explained that securing around one-fifth of the votes could lead to victory. He believes Sujan Chakraborty has a reasonable chance of winning the Dum Dum seat.
However, BJP’s nominee Shilbhadra Dutta, a former Trinamool MLA who joined the BJP in December 2020, dismissed this analysis. “Why should people vote for the CPI(M), which has lost national relevance, in a parliamentary poll?” he asked.
Dutta argued that the Ram Mandir consecration in Ayodhya would consolidate Hindu votes for the BJP, improving their performance. He insisted that the election is about supporting or opposing Modi, and his campaign experiences suggest that people want to teach the TMC a lesson for corruption.
Chakraborty countered by saying that voters are realizing the TMC and BJP are two sides of the same coin, both being anti-people. He highlighted the increased Left vote share in recent civic body and panchayat polls as a positive sign for his campaign.
Roy, however, ridiculed Chakraborty’s optimism, pointing to the erosion of Left cadres in the state. “The CPI(M) currently lacks the organizational strength it once had,” he said.
In Dum Dum, a region with many migrants from East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act might influence voters, according to Maitra. Islam added that Dutta’s “turncoat” label could harm his chances among voters who disapprove of political flip-flopping.
Local issues also pose a challenge for Roy. Residents like Rajkumar Bhattacharya from Kamarhati, an industrial area, lament the region’s declining industrial scene. Chhanda Sen from Dum Dum Uttar criticized the ruling party for the ongoing drinking water crisis despite long-standing demands.
Roy acknowledged the water issue but dismissed broader anti-incumbency sentiments, arguing that voters have faith in the TMC to address these problems. “Drinking water concern is a fact. But that does not mean people will turn away from the Trinamool since they know we will solve the problem,” he added.
Approximately 16 lakh eligible voters in Dum Dum will cast their votes on June 1, the final phase of elections.
