Political Wind In Rajasthan Blowing In Favour Of Congress

Aryavarth - Political wind is blowing in favour of Congress in Rajasthan, despite rebellious Sachin Pilot. Central Congress Leadership has been successful so far in bringing a truce between Sachin and Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. Though the truce seems to be temporary and an uneasy one, Gehlot is heading to shatter the BJP dream in the state in both coming assembly and  2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Within five months, Legislative Assembly Election in Rajasthan will be held. Since BJP and Congress have been alternately winning the state elections for the last two decades, BJP has a great hope of returning to power after winning 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections, and several political commentators emphasize on it. However, the factor that cost BJP in 2018 election, is severe infighting, still persists, rather worsened. In an assembly of 200 seats, the BJP could win only 73 seats, as against 100 of the Congress. The position of BJP since then has weakened in the Vidhan Sabha where it has been reduced further to 70 seats in the current Vidhan Sabha while the Congress has been able to strengthen its position to 108 seats in 2023. It indicates the rise of Congress and fall of BJP in the state politics.

By recalling the Newton’s fist law, we can presume the trend to continue further unless compelled to change by some compelling factor. Congress could throw BJP out of power in 2018, since the Hindutva wave in favour of BJP had subsided, but only three months after it came back in their favour after the Pulwama attack on February 14, which enabled the BJP to win 24 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 and NDA all 25 seats from the state. Since sentiments are always transitory, it soon receded, and there is no Hindutva communal wave to ride on for BJP of PM Modi. It goes without saying that there are very high stakes for the BJP both in the state and at the Centre.

If there is no wave in favour of the BJP, there is no wave in favour of the Congress either. It means both the parties are in greater need to devise hard-core politics on the ground level. Bahujan Samaj Party had won 6 seats in 2018 election, but they don’t have any now, and the Congress has been its beneficiary. Rashtriya Lok Dal had won one seat and it is willing to have alliance with the Congress. BJP ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party had only 3 seats, and hence NDA has little or almost no advantage. As many as 13 independents had won in 2018, mostly the rebellious candidates from both the Congress and the BJP, who are willing to go to the parties from where they came out. The problem of infighting is there in both the Congress and BJP, and hence, similar situation may prevail during forthcoming elections too. However, in most of the seats there would be one-on-one fight between the Congress and the BJP candidates.

Rebellion, emerging as a major factor, not the communal polarization as we have seen during the Lok Sabha election in 2019. We have seen how communal polarization waned by 1018, and just after 2019 Lok Sabha elections, which never came to visit the state thereafter.

Rebellions are present in both in the BJP and Congress. In BJP, the former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje herself has adopted rebellious attitude against the Central BJP leadership against Modi-Shad duo. It is well known fact that Central BJP leadership had wanted to change her as CM face during 2018 election, but it was her threat to split the BJP in Rajasthan that compelled them to field her as CM face, though she lost the election and was thrown out of power. It was the result of severe infighting in the state BJP. She has not been taking much interest in the last five years in the Party’s programmes in the state. Central BJP leadership even made organizational changes in the state BJP unit, including changes in state president and BLP leader, but there was no truce between the warring factions so far.

As for the Congress , the rebellion was led by Sachin Pilot. He revolted first in 2020, and he had only 16 MLAs with him. Even in the last week of May 2023, the same number of MLAs were said to have been supporting Sachin Pilot, while 92 were in support of Ashok Gehlot. On May 31, both the leaders had projected a united front after Delhi meet, called by the Central Congress leadership. The rebellion in congress may erupt any time further, but it would not help BJP gain much and upset the Congress applecart.

The first and foremost thing to note is that Congress rule in Rajasthan has been positive to the common people due to several welfare schemes, latest being making Health the fundamental right. Criticism of PM Modi as distributing  freebies to them have further made people against him, who have been already against him since the lockdown in 2020. Large number of migrant labours are from Rajasthan and they had to suffer a lot during that period. The very world revdi is like rubbing salt to their injuries.

Though there is a little anti-incumbency against the state government, much of it is being neutralized by the anti-incumbency against Midi rule at the Centre. It is a false notion among many Congress leaders that they would easily achieve the same as they achieved in Himachal Pradesh and in Karnataka. They forget that there were double anti-incumbency against the BJP, it was ruling both the Centre and the sates. In case of Rajasthan, Congress will have to be more careful.

The state is thus heading toward a very close contest between the Congress and the BJP in about 14 seats, out of which 8 were won by BJP, 5 by Congress, and 1 by an independent by less than one per cent of margins. Even one per cent of margin in favour of Congress would increase the Congress tally to 117 seats and further reduce the BJP tally to 62 from their present respective strength in the Vidhan Sabha. If the same level of swing goes in favour of the BJP, its tally would rise to only 79, while Congress’s tally would reduce to 102, still in a position to form its government.

The winning margins of votes in 33 constituencies in 2018 election suggests that a swing of 2.4 per cent in favour of BJP would make it win 103 seats, which is very unlikely at a time when wind is blowing in favour of the Congress. If the same level of swing happens in favour of Congress, BJP would have to suffer a total collapse in the state, and could not recover within five months by the time Lok Sabha election would be held in April/May 2023, unless some excessive Hindu communal passion reappears by chance or by design in the meantime as it happened in 2019. (IPA Service)

By Dr. Gyan Pathak


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