Agency (New Delhi):Exit polls in India failed to accurately gauge voter discontent among lower social and economic castes in key states, resulting in an overestimation of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party, as reported by two pollsters. This discrepancy led to turmoil in Indian stock markets on Tuesday after initial projections had boosted market sentiments.
Three out of five polls had predicted that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would secure more than the 303 seats won in 2019, while the opposition “INDIA” alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party, was expected to secure 125 to 182 seats. These optimistic projections had initially boosted financial markets before the election results were announced on Tuesday.
However, the actual vote counts showed significantly lower numbers for the BJP, approximately 240 seats, and about 293 seats for Modi’s alliance, including regional parties. This revelation caused the worst intraday fall in stocks since March 2020, driven by concerns over the challenges Modi might face in implementing economic reforms due to his increased reliance on allies.
Pradeep Gupta, head of Axis My India poll agency, admitted that their survey failed to capture a shift among voters from less privileged sections of society in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Maharashtra, where 170 seats were contested, and where BJP lost 45 seats compared to 2019.
“This is our mistake,” Gupta acknowledged, explaining that many voters in these sections feared disclosing their true voting intentions due to potential attacks from electoral workers with differing political views.
“We could not predict as accurately as we are known for,” he said, citing challenges in capturing voter swings towards opposition parties. Over 900 people were deployed for face-to-face post-ballot interviews with a sample of 582,000 voters, with urban response rates varying from 40-50% and rural rates from 70-80%.
Gupta noted that many women voters asked males in their families to respond on their behalf, leading to inaccurate estimations of their voting decisions.
Yashwant Deshmukh, head of the CVoter polling agency, whose projections overestimated BJP’s seats by about 50, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, echoed similar sentiments. “We are wrong in 2024,” Deshmukh admitted, expressing frustration over the professional hazard of providing seat numbers upon media requests.
