The Aryavarth Express
Agency (Rajasthan): With second phase of election on April 26, Lok Sabha election on all 25 constituencies in Rajasthan will conclude. In every constituency, the Congress has offered BJP tough electoral battles, which made none less than Prime Minister Narendra Modi to lose his cool, who out of frustration started communal tirade against the Congress during the second phase of election campaigns. In such a close electoral battle, we are bound to see the state bringing up surprises, and hence the certainty expressed about BJP’s winning all the seats has given way to uncertainties.
It was a very high-stake election for the BJP and the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, since they are seeking for their third term. The party had won 24 seats in 2019 election, and its ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) one seat, totalling 25 for NDA. This time, the BJP has targeted winning all the 25 seats for itself, the realization of which has just become very uncertain, and the euphoria generated by the party’s victory over ruling Congress in November 2023 elections faced the reality of dwindling of its own vote share in the state.
BJP’s vote share in 2019 election was 59.07 per cent which came down to just 41.70 per cent in 2023, which was their chief worry. On the other hand, Congress’ vote share increased from 34.59 per cent to 39.58 per cent. Though BJP was able to throw Congress out of power in the state by winning 115 seats out of 200 in November 2023 election, it was a matter of great frustration that the Congress win in only 70 Vidhan Sabha seats had actually changed the political configuration in almost a dozen Lok Sabha seats in the stake where Congress emerged stronger than the BJP.
During the first phase of election on April 19 in 12 Lok Sabha seat in the state, BJP candidates found themselves in great difficulty in at least 8 constituencies. Let us first take Nagaur Lok Sabha constituency, that was won by RLP, a BJP ally in 2019. When PM Modi came out with controversial farm laws, the party deserted NDA in protest. Now, RLP joined hands with Congress, and is part of INDIA bloc. RLP candidate was getting good response from the people on this seat, especially with farmer’s support.
Nagaur Lok Sabha constituency is composed of 8 Vidhan Sabha constituencies. In November 2023 state election BJP could win only two seats – Jayal and Nawan. RLP had won only one Khinwasar seat, and rest 5 were won by INC. It was advantage INDIA bloc.
Sikar also polled in the first phase where INDIA bloc ally CPI(M) emerged stronger, even though the BJP had won this seat in 2019 by a huge margin of 2,97,156 votes. November 2023 election has changed the configuration of this constituency. INC had won 5 of the 8 constituencies. BJP has considerably weakened in this seat, and despite aggressive campaign they seemed unable to redeem their lost ground.
The third INDIA bloc ally Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) has also emerged stronger in Banswara Lok Sabha constituency which is a reserved seat for Scheduled Tribe (ST). Congress’ move to give BAP this seat in a seat sharing arrangement proved beneficial not only for this seat but also on all 3 reserved seats – the others two being Dausa and Udaipur. Banswara will go to poll in the second phase. Not only that STs across the state on other seats too, were seen gravitating towards Congress candidates.
Udaipur seat was won by BJP in 2019 by a huge margin of 4,37,914 votes by defeating INC. November 2023 election has however changed the political situation in the constituency. BAP had won two of the 8 Vidhan Sabha segments while one was bagged by INC. Of late, INC candidate on this seat is giving tough contest to BJP candidate. Polling is scheduled for this constituency on April 26.
As for Dausa seat is concerned, polling was held on April 19 in the first phase. BJP had won this seat by defeating Congress in 2019 by a margin of only 78,844 votes. BJP had turn defensive on this seat due to a low winning margin. Congress candidate was emerging stronger in all Vidhan Sabha segments, which gave sleepless nights to BJP.
Out of 12 Lok Sabha seats polled in the first phase, BJP seemed to have clear edge on only 3 – which were Bharatpur, Bikaner, and Jaipur. INC’s upper hand was clearly felt in as many as 6 Lok Sabha seats – Alwar, Churu, Ganganagar, Jaipur Rural, Jhunjhunu, and Karauli-Dholpur. Congress’s strength came on account of change of political configuration in the respective Vidhan Sabha segments in every constituency where INC or INDIA bloc parties were winner in majority of seats.
It should be noted that the difference between the vote shares of both BJP and Congress was very small at 2.12 per cent in November 2023 election. It has made the electoral battle in 2024 very tough for both the parties in all the 25 Lok Sabha constituencies.
Sensing this great difficulty, PM Narendra Modi became more aggressive with communal election campaign in the second phase. It has created sensation and polarization in the rest 13 Lok Sabha constituencies to go to polls in the second phase, The BJP is still not in a dominant position in at least three LokSabha constituencies .. These are Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, Jalore and Kota. BJP has a little edge on 9 seats – Ajmer, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Udaipur, Chittorgarh, Rajsamand, Bhilwara, and Jhalawar-Baran – in the second phase, that may save the party at the last minute in view of their resources on polling day.
Taking the first and second phase together, June 4 may bring surprising results from Rajasthan which will impact the political fate of both the BJP and the Congress. (IPA Service)
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
