The Aryavarth Express
Agency (New Delhi) – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to win a rare third term, but with a smaller-than-expected mandate, he will have to rely more heavily on his allies. This necessitates urgent attention to pressing issues like unemployment, inflation, and economic disparities in the world’s most populous nation.
Unlike the previous two elections, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) requires its alliance partners to cross the 272 majority mark in the 543-seat lower house of parliament. As per the ongoing vote count on Tuesday, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is leading in about 290 seats, with the BJP itself leading in 240 seats, down from 303 in 2019.
“The BJP’s reliance on allies to form the government is a slap in the face,” said Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “NDA allies will extract their pound of flesh, impacting policymaking and cabinet composition.”
Modi, known for his strong leadership, has not had to rely on coalition partners in the past, raising questions about how he will manage a coalition government. “Modi is not known as a consensual figure,” said political commentator Arathi Jerath. “It will be interesting to see how he manages the pressures of a coalition government.”
Modi’s win for his alliance is historic, and he expressed gratitude, stating, “We will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people.”
The BJP had campaigned on India’s economic expansion, international stature, and a Hindu-first agenda but acknowledged that unemployment was a factor in the election. “Employment is a challenge that we also accept,” said spokesperson Gopal Krishna Agarwal.
India’s unemployment rate rose to 8.1% in April from 7.4% in March, with urban unemployment in the 15-29 age group reaching 17%. Despite impressive economic growth of over 8%, rural distress has increased due to rising food prices, concentrating wealth in the richest 1% of the population. Food inflation has been above 8% since November 2023, hitting the poor hardest.
Modi sought a significant mandate in the six-week election, driven by his popularity and promises of free cereal for the poor, infrastructure development, and support for majority Hindus. However, a fall in voter turnout in the initial stages worried the BJP. Some analysts noted that opposition promises of affirmative action, bigger handouts, and more jobs were gaining traction.
In response, Modi shifted focus from economic development to accusing the opposition of favoring minority Muslims. “The polarising campaign and hyped-up media outreach were signs that he was worried,” said Jerath. The BJP viewed Modi as their best communicator to convey their message.
With the BJP falling short of a majority, promises like a uniform civil code for all religions and simultaneous state and national elections may be delayed in favor of more immediate economic issues. “Modi has seemingly lost his aura of electoral invincibility,” said Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center. “This narrative of resilience has been dealt a big blow.”
