The Aryavarth Express
Agency(New Delhi): India has seen a significant decrease in its fertility rate, from an average of nearly 6.2 children per woman in 1950 to just below 2 in 2021. This trend is not unique to India but mirrors a global shift, with worldwide fertility rates dropping from over 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021. These numbers are expected to decline even further, reaching 1.8 and 1.6 children per woman globally by 2050 and 2100, respectively. This information comes from a comprehensive study published in The Lancet journal, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators.
The study provides an insight into the changing dynamics of birth rates across the globe, highlighting that while the number of live births worldwide increased from around 93 million in 1950 to 129 million in 2021, it saw a decline from its peak of 142 million in 2016. Specifically, in India, the number of live births was over 16 million in 1950 and increased to over 22 million in 2021, with projections indicating a decrease to 13 million by 2050.
One of the study’s key observations is the contrast in fertility rates between high-income and low-income countries. While many parts of the world are grappling with the challenges of declining fertility, certain low-income regions, especially in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa, continue to experience high fertility rates. This disparity is expected to create a “demographically divided world,” where a significant portion of global births will occur in some of the poorest areas. The study predicts that the share of global live births in low-income countries will nearly double from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100.
Furthermore, the study discusses the implications of declining fertility rates on various global issues, including economic stability, geopolitics, food security, health, and environmental sustainability. It emphasizes the need for innovation and funding to address the challenges posed by an aging population, such as the strain on health insurance, social security programs, and healthcare infrastructure. The researchers advocate for improving access to education and contraceptives as crucial steps toward stabilizing fertility rates, especially in regions with high fertility.
Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India (PFI), underscores the importance of the study’s findings for India, pointing out the potential challenges of an aging population, labor force shortages, and social imbalances. She emphasizes the need for proactive measures, including economic policies to stimulate growth and job creation, as well as reforms in social security and pension systems, to mitigate the impacts of declining fertility rates.
This comprehensive analysis, coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, US, underscores the profound changes in fertility patterns worldwide and their potential long-term impacts on society.
