As the leaders of the INDIA alliance prepare for their third meeting in Mumbai on August 31 and September 1 to take forward the decisions taken at the last conclave in Bengaluru on July 17 and 18, one issue that should figure most prominently in their minds is how to project the new narrative of the India alliance to challenge the three pronged strategy of Narendra Modi – Nationalism, Hindutva and welfare measures, especially for the OBC’s.
In any battle, both sides have to know the strengths and weaknesses of the rival side in order to arrive at the foolproof action programme to expose the weaknesses of the other.. The INDIA alliance have to correctly assess the strengths and weaknesses of the last nine years of NDA rule headed by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the next 8 months preceding the Lok Sabha elections scheduled in April/May 2024, the Prime Minister who is an expert in his optics will claim big successes in many areas of the economy generating a big hype as against the ground reality and making efforts to hide his colossal failure in dealing with the price rise and acute joblessness. This is the area which is the common talking point of most of the electorate belonging to the lower middle class and the poor. They are the people who have to be targeted by INDIA most since most of them voted for the BJP and the PM Modi in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Let us take up the issue of inflation and price rise first. The common people of the country have been the worst sufferers of the rise in prices in essential commodities in the last four years since 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The headline consumer price index has jumped to 7.4 percent in July this year as against 4 per cent in June this year. For the poorer sections of the people including both unorganized workers and lowly paid staff, this inflationary pressures are at its peak at a time when new jobs are not being generated and the real wages have come down.
Leading economist Jean Dreze in a recent study has shown that the real wages of the male agricultural workers, non agricultural labourers and construction workers grew at less than one per cent between 2014-15 and 2021-22 the first eight years of Narendra Modi’s rule. The decline accentuated in 2022-23 when the growth rate of real wages for the first group was just 0.2 per cent and the other two sectors recorded a decline. So the Indian economy is witnessing a scenario whereby the real income is declining and household expenditure is rising. The essential food items prices have gone sky high.
The dichotomy of the present functioning of the economy under BJP rule is that the corporates profits have gone up substantially even in the pandemic years and the upper class and the high middle class segments have continued to prosper. The brunt of the economic crisis is being borne by the underprivileged sections of the population only. In the last nine years, the inequality between the rich and the poor has widened exponentially.
Now focusing on the employment sector, what is the real scenario? The latest CMIE report says that the unemployment level stood at .8.16 percent in June 2023 quarter and the biggest challenge is now to provide jobs to the educated youth. , For graduates and higher, the crisis is more acute compared to the lowly educated youth. Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked of generating 2 crore jobs in the country every year in his election pledge in 2014. Now he does not mention that in his campaign addresses, he is now creating a hype over the government organized Rozgar Melas where the employment letters are given to few thousands and that is being publicized by the news media and the TV channels. The BJP government is deliberately hiding the disastrous effects of its jobless growth policy framework in the last nine years.
The INDIA alliance constituents have to give big focus on the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) which is the backbone of the Indian growth story and the dominant employment provider. Despite all tall claims, the Narendra Modi Government has done precious little for this sector. Even before the pandemic years, there was slowdown and this sector was adversely affected. The bailout schemes implemented after 2020 did little to help 80 percent of the MSMES.INDIA alliance programme has to draw an innovative strategy for reviving and rejuvenating the MSMEs nationally.
It is estimated that there are 633.9 lakh MSMEs in the country and the micro sector alone includes 630.5 lakh units. As of August 2 this year the MSMEs employed 12.36 crore persons. This sector can act as the real engine of growth provided proper programmes are adopted. And this is the sector which can play a pioneering role in generating lakhs of jobs and helping the country in reducing the extent of the unemployment problem.
Compared to the organized sector of industries, the potential of the employment generation in the MSME sector can be appreciated. The last sixth economic census mentioned of the employment of 3.14 crore persons in key nine industries which account for 85 per cent of the total employment in organized industries. There is not much possibility of growth in jobs in this area, since both the private sector and the public sector companies are going for high tech upgradation leading to displacement of workers. Further Artificial Intelligence will be increasingly used minimizing the possibility of more human recruitment. INDIAN alliance programme may ensure the adoption of a flexible hybrid model which can take care of both tech upgradation as also creation of new job opportunities in the organized sector.
For political purposes also, INDIA constituents have to cultivate this MSME sector containing lakhs of entrepreneurs as they are the victims of the crony capitalism of the Modi Government. These MSME owners and employees are the potential support base of the INDIA alliance even in terms of raising funds. According to the latest estimates, when India’s GDP approaches US$ 5 trillion by 2028, the share of the MSMEs may touch US$ one trillion.
In the present third decade of the twenty first century, Indians are highly aspirational. The Indian youth from the hills of Arunachal and Nagaland to Jammu & Kashmir are changing in their mental makeup. Understanding this changing Indian youth requires modern mind. The old jaded stereotyped interpretations and slogans won’t act. BJP under Narendra Modi is making use of every modern tool. They have financial muscle power which the INDIA alliance can never match, they have dedicated RSS workers in every village of the country, they have highly skilled advisers with global experience. BJP is not only the political party with the largest membership in the world, it is also a political party which has successfully deployed its Hindutva- crony capitalism combo on the people. INDIA alliance need an equally powerful deterrent to take on the BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Mumbai conclave must take into account the above mentioned factors and chart out its action programme. Time is running out. (IPA Service)
By Nitya Chakraborty
