The Aryavarth Express
Agency (New Delhi): On the day of closing of Election campaigns on April 17 for the first phase of Lok Sabha Election 2024 scheduled to be held on April 19, INDIA bloc seems to have an edge over NDA, though BJP is set to win largest number of seats partywise followed by DMK, and INC.
As many as in 59 seats out of 102 Lok Sabha Constituencies going to poll, INDIA bloc has managed to get an upper hand over the NDA, chiefly due to political situation in the Tamil Nadu, where INDIA bloc is set to have a clean sweep. INDIA bloc is most likely to win all the 39 seats in the state, and it is possible that BJP may not even be able to open its account from the state. Elections in Tamil Nadu also influence outcome of election result in the lone Puducherry Lok Sabha Constituency, where INC has clear edge.
NDA has been able to gain edge over INDIA bloc on as many as in 41 seats, chiefly outside Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. BJP has upper hand in 36 seats while on 5 seats its allies are ahead their rivals. There seem to be only two constituencies in the country where non-NDA, an non-INDIA bloc political parties have upper hand – SKM in Sikkim and ZPM in Mizoram.
DMK has edge on 21 seats in Tamil Nadu, followed by INC on 9, KMDK on one, CPI on 2, CPI(M) on 2, VCK on 2, IUML on 1 and MDMK on 1, the seats which they are contesting as INDIA bloc allies. On all the seats NDA partners have been facing an uphill task, and their candidates seems no match to the INDIA bloc candidates.
Apart from Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, elections are scheduled in 19 other states and UTs. Congress seems to have upper hand in 24 Lok Sabha constituencies, including 10 in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The other 14 seats involving Congress are Kaziranga in Assam; Bastar in Chhattisgarh; Mandla, Blaghat, and Chhindwara in Madhya Pradesh; Ramtek and Chandrapur in Maharashtra; Inner Manipur; Shillong; Dausa, Karauli-Dholpur, and Nagaur in Rajasthan; Tripura West and Andaman and Nicobar. Almost in half of these 14 constituencies there are close contests, where INC has minor edge.
BJP has an edge in the North East. It may bag both the seats in Arunachal Pradesh. Barring Kaziranga where INC candidate is giving tough fight to the BJP in all the four other constituencies going to poll – Sonitpur, Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, and Jorhat – BJP has clear edge. In Manipur, BJP’s ally NPF has little edge in Outer Manipur constituency. Another BJP ally in Meghalaya, NPP has upper hand in Tural Lok Sabha Constituency.
In the Hindi heartland, BJP has clear upper hand over INDIA block candidates. In four Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar – Aurangabad, Gaya, Nawada, and Jamui – NDA has clear upper hand. BJP is far ahead than INDIA bloc candidates in Aurangabad and Nawad, while HAM(S) in Gaya, and LJP(RV) in Jamui have edge over their rivals. BJP candidate in Bastar in Chhattisgarh is giving tough fight to INC candidate. Six seats in Madhya Pradesh are going to poll, and BJP has clear edge in three of those –Sidhi, Shahdol, and Jabalpur. BJP candidates are facing close contests in Mandla, Balaghat, and Chhindwara where INC has lately seen consolidating its position.
Out of 12 constituencies going to poll in Rajasthan in first phase, BJP has clear edge in as many as in 9. Theses constituencies are – Alwar, Bharatpur, Bikaner, Churu, Ganganagar, Jaipur, Jaipur Rural, Jhunjhunu, and Sikar.
Eight parliamentary constituencies are going to poll in the first phase in Uttar Pradesh. All these are in Western Uttar Pradesh. BJP is likely to have benefit of allying with RLD in the region which may prove to be beneficial for both. RLD seems to be stronger in Bijnor, while BJP in Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, and Pilibhit. BSP, RLD, and SP had contested together in 2019 Lok Sabha election, but RLD has joined hands with BJP, and BSP is contesting on its own. Even though, on Nagina, Moradabad and Rampur constituencies, SP has emerged stronger. SP and INC are contesting together as INDIA bloc allies this time.
All five seats in Uttarakhand are going to poll. BJP is stronger than its rival INC candidates in all the five constituencies.
Five Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra going to poll in the first phase are also witnessing closer contests between the candidates of NDA and INDIA bloc. In three of them – Nagpur, Bhandara-Gondia, and Gadchiroli-Chimur – BJP candidates have edge over their INDIA block rivals, while in two – Ramtek and Chandrapur – INC candidates have upper hand over NDA candidates.
Three of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies going to poll in the first phase are witnessing close fight between BJP and TMC. These are Cooch Behar, Alipurduars, and Jalpaiguri., all presently with the BJP. The saffron may lose at least one.
Though 102 Lok Sabha constituencies are going to poll, trends at the close of election campaigns are available. NDA has upper hand in 41 seats, which is 10 seats less than half (51) for the first phase of Lok Sabha election 2024. The next six phases of elections would thus witness more aggressive campaigns from both sides – NDA and INDIA bloc. (IPA Service)
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
