The Aryavarth Express
With second phase of Lok Sabha election 2024 held on April 26, the focus of election campaigns has shifted to the third phase election scheduled to be held on May 7. Significance of this phase of election is that a total of 285 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats, ie 52.40 per cent of constituencies, would poll by that time, and the emerging political scenario would present a better insight into the direction of Indian politics.
Out of 95 Lok Sabha constituencies spread in 13 states and UTs scheduled for poll in the third phase, BJP had won 72 Lok Sabha seats in 1019 Lok Sabha election. Another 8 seats were won by NDA allies. Since BJP and NDA allies have not performed well in the first two phases of election, the third phase has become extremely important for the BJP and PM Narendra Modi who are seeking for their third term.
An assessment of the performance of BJP in the first two phases suggests that BJP had edge in only about 70 Lok Sabha constituencies and its allies in NDA had upper hand in only about 10. Elections were held in 189 Lok Sabha constituencies in the first two phases. BJP has therefore resorted to more aggressive campaigning for the third phase of election.
Even though BJP can’t make up the losses it is likely to have incurred in the first two phases of election, since it requires winning more seats than BJP and NDA had already won in 2019. Thus, winning more than 80 seats out of 95 going to poll in the third phase is an impossibility for the BJP and NDA. As against this BJP and NDA partners will have a tough task in hand to defend its seats won in 2019.
The 13 states and UTs where the third phase of elections are scheduled are – Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, and Jammu and Kashmir. BJP and NDA are ruling in every state except in West Bengal and Karnataka.
Altogether 95 constituencies would poll – 4 in Assam, 5 in Bihar, 7 in Chhattisgarh, 2 in Goa, all 26 in Gujarat, the rest 14 seats in Karnataka, 9 in Madhya Pradesh, 11 in Maharashtra, 10 in Uttar Pradesh, 4 in West Bengal, and one each in Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, and Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency in Jammu and Kashmir.
BJP is running a very high risk of losing its seats in Karnataka, a state where Congress had thrown it out of power in Vidhan Sabha election 2023. It has lately become most uncomfortable state in this phase for the BJP on account of this and other reasons. All the 14 seats going to polls on May 7 – Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, Bellary, Haveri, Dharwad, Uttar Kannada, Devangere, and Shimoga – were won by BJP in 2019 election. Congress is strong in the state and the BJP is struggling to retain its seats. Majority of BJP seats are considered to be endangered this time.
As for West Bengal is concerned, it may also frustrate the party, since it has not much more to gain in this phase. Four Lok Sabha constituencies – Maldha Uttar, Maldah Dakshin, Jangipur, and Murshidabad are going to poll. BJP had won only one Maldaha Uttar seat in 2019. The party is facing an uphill task to defend this seat this time against the deep rooted influence of the TMC and Congress. BJP can’t even hope of a better performance in the three other constituencies.
Out of four seats going to poll in Assam, BJP had won only one Guwahati seat in 2019. Three other seats – Kokrajhar, Dhubri, and Barpeta – were won by the opposition parties. BJP is most likely to find it tough to win back the seats it had lost in 2019 from the state, though BJP is presently ruling the state.
In Bihar, BJP had won only one seat Araria in 2019, while four others were won by its allies – JD(U) had won Jhanjharpur, Madhepura, and Supaul and LJP the Khagaria Lok Sabha constituency. NDA is presently ruling the state, and there is seat sharing arrangement among BJP, JD(U), and LJP. Congress-RJD alliance is all set to challenge the BJP and NDA, since JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar is perceived to have politically weakened and LJP’s new leadership Chirag Paswan’s influence is untested after the split in the party.
BJP had won the November 2023 Vidhan Sabha election in Chhattisgarh, but the difference of vote shares has considerably narrowed between BJP and Congress. Out of 7 Lok Sabha constituencies in Chhattisgarh going to poll in the third phase, BJP had won 6 – Bilaspur, Durg, Janjgir-Champa, Raigarh, Raipur and Surguja – in 2019. Contests in all these constituencies are likely to be closer than expected.
Nine Lok Sabha constituencies in Madhya Pradesh – Betul, Bhind, Bhopal, Guna, Gwalior, Morena, Rajgarh, Sagar and Vidisha – are going to poll in the third phase. BJP had won all these seats in 2019 Lok Sabha election. BJP had also won the November 2023 Vidhan Sabha election but the difference of vote shares between BJP and Congress had considerably narrowed compared to five years back in 2019. Contests in several seats therefore are going to be closer.
In Maharashtra, elections in the third phase are scheduled for 11 Lok Sabha constituencies. BJP had won 4 seats – Latur, Solapur, Madh, and Sangli. Shiv Sena, then a BJP ally in NDA had won another 4 seats – Osmanabad, Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, Kolhapur and Hatkanangle. Since Shiv Sena has now split in two – Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Shiv Sena (UBT), it is highly uncertain what will happen this time to NDA in the state. Shiv Sena (Shinde) group is part of NDA while Shiv Sena (UBT) is part of INDIA alliance. The state is presently under NDA rule. INDIA bloc seems to be offering tough electoral battle to BJP and NDA.
Gujarat is the only state where BJP seems to be safe. All 26 seats in the state are going to poll in the third phase. BJP had won all the seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The state is under BJP rule, and it is the home state of PM Narendra Modi. The party had already won Surat seat unopposed, but in couple of seats Congress and AAP alliance will be able to create some difficulties for the BJP.
Both the seats in Goa, are going to poll in the third phase. BJP had won North Goa seat in 2019. The state is presently under BJP rule, and hopes to wrest the other from the opposition. However, AAP is strong contender there and INDIA alliance may turn BJP’s apple cart.
Out of 10 seats going to poll in Uttar Pradesh in this phase, BJP had won 8 seats – Hathras, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Etah, Badaun, Bareilly and Aonla – in 2019 Lok Sabha election. SP had won two seats Sambha and Mainpuri. SP-Congress alliance is set to offer tough electoral battle in all seats in the state. (IPA Service)
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
