The Aryavarth Express
Agency (Uttar Pradesh): BJP is finding itself in a very tough electoral battle in the third phase of Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh for which election campaign will end on May 5. It is surprising that despite high pitch communal campaign by BJP leadership, including the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, common people are just brushing them aside as merely election rhetoric. They don’t believe PM Modi’s accusation that Congress and INDIA block would give reservation quota’s of Dalits, STs, and OBCs and wealth of the Hindu’s to Muslim, if they would come to power. People are taking it like a pinch of salt.
The 10 Lok Sabha constituencies in the third phase polling on May 7 are – Sambhal, Hathras, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Badaun, Bareilly and Aonla. In all the constituencies the chief electoral battle is between the BJP and Congress. Though BSP has also in the fray, on account of their dwindled support base, the party candidates are not faring well.
BJP’s predicament is that its vote share has been dwindling in since 2019, when the party won 62 seats, which was 9 less than 2014, and was able to bag only 49.56 per cent of votes share. However, in Vidhan Sabha election of 2022, BJP’s vote share was even reduced to 41.29 per cent. SP’s share of votes in the corresponding period have increased from 17.96 per cent to 32.06 per cent. Lok Sabha election 2024 is being held in this general background.
Sambhal seat was won by SP in 2019 Lok Sabha election, when it contested in alliance with the BSP. The party had won this seat with a huge margin of 1,74,826 defeating the BJP candidate. In the current Lok Sabha election, the SP and BSP has parted ways, and hence BJP had put a great hope to wrest the seat from the SP. However, situation on the ground has become difficult to the BJP.
There are five Vidhan Sabha segments in the Sambhal Lok Sabha constituency. SP had won four of them in 2022. The seat is a citadel of SP is well known, and the party is still a dominant force in this constituency. Zia ur Rahman Barq is the SP candidate against Parmeshwar Lal Saini of BJP. Zia ur Rahman Barq is the grandson of the late former MP Shafiqur Rehman Barq. Though a case has been registered against him for seeking votes in the name of ‘sacrifice’ of gangster-politicians Mukhtar Ansari, and Atiq Ahmed who were allegedly victims of BJP’s extra judicial activities. BJP is trying its best to derive benefit from it but, at the ground level the party is finding it very difficult to emerge as dominant force in the constituency.
SP is also offering tough electoral battle to BJP in Firozabad constituency. BJP had won this seat in 2019 but finding it difficult to retain since electoral scene in this constituency has considerably changed. There is no “uncle-nephew” feud this time. This Yadav heartland is united this time. BJP has fielded Vishwadeep Singh, who was BSP candidate from this constituency in 2014. BSP is also contesting on this seat and hence one can’t expect that BJP’s candidate would have any additional advantage. The sitting BJP MP is not seen very active in the constituency. Akshay Yadav is SP candidate, and has clearly an upper hand. In 2022 election SP had won three out of five Vidhan Sabha segments.
Mainpuri is another SP citadel. The party had won this seat in 2019, and in Vidhan Sabha 2022 election, it had won three out of five segments. Dimple Yadav, is the SP candidate from this constituency. She is the wife of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav. She has an edge against BJP’s candidate Jaiveer Singh. It should be noted that Dimple Yadav had won in the bypoll necessitated by the death of Mulayam Sigh Yadav in October 2022.
Badaun is presently held by BJP’s Sanghmitra Maurya, who had won this seat defeating SP’s Dharmendra Yadav in 2019 by a small margin of only 18,454 votes. BJP is finding it difficult to retain its seat, despite it changed its candidate. Durvijay Singh Shakya is a BJP candidate against Aditya Yadav, son of SP leader Shivpal Yadav. It is historically stronghold of SP. In 2022 Vidhan Sabha election 2022, the party had won three out of 5 segments.
Though in Hathras, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Etah, Bareilly and Aonla constituencies, BJP seems to have an edge over the SP, but at the fag end of election campaign for the third phase, SP has become aggressive and likely to give closer contests than in 2019.
BJP has been attacking the SP over its dynastic politics, since several of the SP’s first family are in the fray. By the third phase, election to the 26 constituencies would conclude poll. BJP had not fared well in the first phase, though it had fared very well in the second, when 8 constituencies polled in each phase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and State Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath led the BJP’s charge against SP alleging them of doing dynastic and Muslim appeasement politics. BJP has very high stake in this phase in Uttar Pradesh since it had won 8 out of 10 going to polls. (IPA Service)
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
