The Aryavarth Express
Agency (New Delhi): During the 17th Lok Sabha elections held in 2019 from April 11 to May 19, there were 27 Muslim MPs in Parliament, slightly more than the 23 Muslim MPs in the previous 16th Lok Sabha elections. This proportion is still ranked as the second-lowest in India’s parliamentary history in relation to the country’s population.
India, which has the world’s third-largest Muslim population at 172.2 million according to the 2011 census, has consistently experienced an inadequate representation of its largest religious minority group. With Muslims constituting approximately 14 percent of India’s population (13.4 percent in 2001 and 14.2 percent in 2011), they should ideally have around 76 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, based on proportional representation.
Since 1952, Muslims have historically held less than 6 percent of the seats in Lok Sabha and slightly over 10.5 percent of the seats in the Rajya Sabha. No political party, including the secular ones, nominates Muslims based on the proportion of Muslims in areas they control, and Muslim votes do not consistently align with one specific party.
The highest number of Muslim MPs elected to Parliament was in 1980, with 49 representatives. However, the number has decreased since then. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2014 became the first party to secure a simple majority in Parliament without any elected Muslim Member of Parliament.
The only Muslim candidate from the BJP listed for the 18th Lok Sabha elections, M Abdul Salam, is contesting from Kerala’s Muslim-majority Malappuram constituency. Once the Vice-Chancellor of Calicut University, Salam is contesting for the second time as a BJP candidate. He entered electoral politics in 2021 when he ran as a BJP candidate from Tirur in Malappuram in the Kerala Assembly elections.
In India, there are approximately 50 parliamentary constituencies where the percentage of Muslim voters is over 30 percent. Despite this, in most of these constituencies, Hindu candidates have emerged winners, either due to the BJP successfully garnering Hindu votes, or secular parties nominating Hindu candidates.
The Muslim population in India is primarily focused in specific states. The largest population of Muslims in the country resides in Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 seats in the Lok Sabha. As of the 2011 census, the 38.4 million Muslims in Uttar Pradesh accounted for approximately one-fifth of the state’s total population.
The second-largest concentration of Muslims in India is found in West Bengal, where 24.6 million Muslims represent 27 percent of the state’s population. Bihar and Assam also have significant Muslim populations. In the southern states of Kerala and Karnataka, there are large Muslim communities. Jammu and Kashmir, along with Lakshadweep, are the only Muslim-majority Union Territories in India. It is in these states, Union Territories, and cities such as Hyderabad where Muslim votes hold the most significance.
While Muslim-focused parties, such as the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and All-India Majlis Ittehad-e-Muslimeen (AIMIM), in southern India, the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUFD) in northeastern India and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and National Conference (NC) in the Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh regions of northern India have notable backing in specific areas, it is mainly the secular parties that receive the majority of Muslim votes.
In states with larger Muslim populations, secular parties, such as the Left parties, Samajwadi Party (SP), and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar and Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, are actively involved in engaging with the Muslim community. In West Bengal, the Muslim vote is divided among the TMC, Congress and CPI(M), whereas, in Kerala, it is split between the CPI(M) and Congress. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslim votes are distributed among the Congress, SP and BSP.
In many instances, various secular parties field competitive candidates in constituencies with substantial Muslim populations, aiming to gather support from Muslim voters. This often results in the division of Muslim votes among multiple candidates, leading to the loss of Muslim candidates in numerous elections.
In 2004, former diplomat and current politician Syed Sahabuddin noted, as reported by The Diplomat media outlet, that national and regional parties claiming to be secular often lack confidence in their ability to transfer their non-Muslim base votes to a Muslim candidate. Sahabuddin highlighted the reliance on Muslim-dominated constituencies as a fundamental flaw in the electoral system from a secular standpoint. He emphasised that, in 2004, 28 out of 36 Muslim members of Parliament were elected from constituencies with significant Muslim populations.
Political analysts anticipate a potential shift in the coming parliamentary elections, where Muslims, who often feel marginalized under Hindu nationalist governance, may opt to support the most formidable contender against the BJP. A research paper published in February highlighted that analyses of Muslim voting behaviour in state Assembly elections after the 2019 General Elections and the emergence of a new dominant party system suggest a noticeable trend towards consolidation, The Diplomat said.
In the 2021 Assembly elections in West Bengal, there was a significant consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of the TMC, reflecting the community’s urgency to prevent the BJP from gaining control of the state government. In the current scenario in Uttar Pradesh, with the Congress and the SP forming an alliance, some analysts anticipate that Muslims will support the SP-Congress coalition over the weakened BSP in the coming elections.
Echoing Sahabuddin’s insights, the TMC is nominating only six Muslim candidates out of 42 seats in West Bengal for the 2024 elections, despite Muslims constituting over a quarter of the state’s population. The question of whether Muslim votes will unite in support of the most viable candidate against the BJP in various states is uncertain. However, it is predicted that, even if this consolidation occurs, it may not significantly boost the parliamentary representation of Muslims, as they are unlikely to receive adequate nomination opportunities in the first instance. (IPA Service)
By Girish Linganna
