The Aryavarth Express
Agency (Uttar Pradesh): Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance in Uttar Pradesh is the beginning of BJP’s nightmare before the Lok Sabha elections in April/May this year. The hope hitherto generated after the January 22 Ram Temple inauguration in Ayodhya, and a prospect of falling off allies of INDIA bloc as leaves from a tree, of BJP and PM Narendra Modi’s returning to power for their third term has somewhat dimmed in a fast-changing political scenario on the eve of 2024 polls.
Only a few days ago during the reply to the motion of thanks to Presidential address in Lok Sabha, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said that BJP will be winning 370 seats and NDA 405, which later rounded to 400+. Even during the BJP’s National Council Meet in Delhi, he had said, “Aayega to Modi hi” (Indeed, Modi would return). However, Congress-SP alliance in Uttar Pradesh has altered the political situation in the state in such a way that would offer many sleepless nights to PM Narendra Modi, not only in Uttar Pradesh, but also in other Hindi heartland states such as Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
What exactly Congress-SP alliance has changed? Before finding an answer to this question, one needs to note the ongoing farmers’ agitation that has made even the farmers of Western Uttar Pradesh restive, and most of them are not going with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) to support BJP or NDA. They are on the agitation path against the BJP government at the Centre led by PM Narendra Modi against the denial of legal guarantee for MSP. The situation just gone against the BJP despite the fact that Narendra Modi played Bharat Ratna Politics, awarded Bharat Ratna to Chaudhary Charan Singh, which made his grandson Jayant Chaudhary desert INDIA alliance and join hands with the BJP. Desertion of RLD paved the way for Congress-SP alliance and now SP will contest on 62 seats, Congress on 17, and Azad Samaj Party (ASP) of emerging Dalit leader Chandra Shekhar Azad on 1 seat.
The three major political groups are now arrayed in electoral battlefield in Uttar Pradesh are: NDA led by BJP; INDIA bloc led by SP; and the BSP. BJP had won 62 seats in Lok Sabha election 2019, BSP 10, SP 5 and Congress 1. NDA ally Apna Del (S) had won 2 seats. BSP and SP had contested the election together as Mahagathbandhan allies. BSP contesting this time alone will adversely impact BSP’s electoral prospect, and the party has already lost its vote share from 19.26 per cent in 2019 Lok Sabha election to 12.88 per cent in Vidhan Sabha election 2022. Mayawati’s support base has considerably declined, and is likely to decline further. With rise of Chandra Shekhar Azad as a Dalit leader and his alliance with INDIA block would attract Dalit votes, which will damage BJP’s prospect at a time when farmers, and large chunk of OBC’s are already supporting SP.
BJP’s vote share in Uttar Pradesh in 2019 Lok Sabha election was 49.56 per cent, and there were 20 Lok Sabha seats where BJP’s winning margin was less than 50 per cent. Congress-SP-ASP alliance and further decline of BSP’s support base would make way for even closer contest with BJP on these 20 seats. There were already 16 seats with the opposition, and the loss of BSP would be gain of INDIA bloc, since Dalits of Uttar Pradesh have always been against the BJP. Thus, BJP will have to face tough battle in 36 seats.
By 2022, as the Vidhan Sabha results in Uttar Pradesh revealed, BJP’s votes share has declined to 41.29 per cent from 49.56 per cent in 2019. Moreover, BJP could win only 255 seats out of 403. BJP could win 104 seats with a small margin of less than 20,000 votes. Congress-SP alliance will therefore enforce a too tough battle for BJP in these 104 Vidhan Sabha constituencies. SP+ had won 125 seats, and Congress 2, and BSP only 1 seat in 2022 Vidhan Sabha election. Hence the total number of Vidhan Sabha constituencies where BJP will have to fight a tough battle would be 231. This Vidhan Sabha Constituency wise electoral prospect of the BJP would adversely affect the final outcome in the Lok Sabha constituencies, since on an average 5 Vidhan Sabha Constituencies make a Lok Sabha Constituency.
By going through the 2019 Lok Sabha election results and the latest Congress-SP alliance, one can clearly see 36 Lok Sabha constituencies where INDIA block would make BJP vulnerable. However, if we consider the 2022 Vidhan Sabha election result, INDIA block would offer a tough electoral battle in at least 46 Lok Sabha seats.
As against fall of BJP’s vote share by 8.27 per cent during 2019-2022, SP’s vote share rose by 10.24 per cent to 32.06 per cent. Therefore, to retain its 62 seats BJP needs a swing in its favour by 8.27 per cent. Ram Temple inauguration in Ayodhya, and staking claims by CM Yogi Adityanath on Gyanvapi Mosque in Kashi, and Idgah Mosque in Mathura, and asking Muslims to hand them over to Hindus temples Kashivishvanath and Krishnajanmabhumi, had initially expected to fetch electoral dividend to BJP, but Congress-SP alliance has greatly damaged its possibility. Large number of farmers, OBCs, and Dalits are turning in favour of INDIA alliance.
Since SP has its own pocket of influence is Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the alliance would boost INDIA block prospects under the leadership of Congress. Including UP, these four Hindi heartland states have 145 seats out of which BJP had won 123 seats in 2019.LokSabha elections. BJP would find it difficult to retain its seats in these states, which would also apply to its ally Apna Dal (S) in Uttar Pradesh which won 2 seats. Its ally in Rajasthan, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party had won 1 seat in 2019, which has already deserted BJP. Congress-SP alliance has put BJP in a difficult position, since PM Modi and his followers had pinned their hopes chiefly on INDIA block falling apart, especially after TMC in West Bengal and AAP in Punjab had announced to contest alone.
It is yet uncertain how much loss the BJP can make up by pushing Hindutva communal politics further, which the two new developments coming to the front – farmers protest and Congress-SP alliance – have pushed back to its rear. (IPA Service)
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
