The Aryavarth Express:
New Delhi, April 8: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will unveil its first bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement for the financial year 2026–27 today. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is scheduled to announce the decisions of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at 10 AM.
The MPC has been deliberating on key issues such as interest rates, inflation outlook, and economic growth since Monday. Market experts widely anticipate that the central bank will maintain a status quo on the repo rate, which currently stands at 5.25% following a cut in December 2025.
Economists suggest that the RBI is likely to adopt a cautious, wait-and-watch approach amid global economic uncertainties and volatile energy prices.
Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist at Crisil, noted that the central bank’s decisions will hinge on inflation trends and forecasts. She highlighted that inflation remains within the RBI’s comfort zone, currently estimated at around 2.6%. GDP growth is expected to hover near 7% for the first two quarters of the fiscal year, though she anticipates slight moderation in credit growth in the coming years.
Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge Ratings, also expects no change in policy rates or stance. She emphasized that a cautious approach would allow the RBI to better assess emerging risks and make calibrated decisions going forward. Sinha added that the central bank may introduce scenario-based projections to address increasing uncertainties.
She further pointed out that geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-US conflict, along with supply-side disruptions, could drive inflationary pressures. According to her estimates, if global crude oil prices average USD 90 per barrel, India’s GDP growth could moderate to around 6.7%.
Apoorva Javadekar, Chief Economist at Muthoot FinCorp, echoed similar views, stating that stable rates would help support growth amid external challenges. He added that lower inflation in February provides the RBI with room to pause.
Former State Bank of India Chairman Dinesh Khara and PwC India’s Ranen Banerjee also expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged. Banerjee noted that monetary policy tools may have limited impact on challenges arising from geopolitical conflicts but hinted at possible liquidity-related measures.
He cautioned that crude oil prices remain a significant risk, adding that if prices rise to USD 100 per barrel, it could increase the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by nearly 1% and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) by 1.5–2%.
