The Aryavarth Express
Agency (Maharashtra): As the 2024 general elections approach, the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra, led by the BJP, faces significant internal challenges and diminishing voter support. This scenario could impact the BJP’s efforts to maintain its stronghold in the state.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited Maharashtra 14 times since the announcement of general elections on March 16, highlighting the state’s importance, which has the second-highest number of Lok Sabha seats (48) after Uttar Pradesh. In the 2019 elections, the BJP and its then ally, the unified Shiv Sena, won 41 out of 48 seats. To replicate or improve upon this success in 2024, the BJP must navigate internal discord and voter dissatisfaction.
The NDA has struggled with low voter turnout in the initial phases of polling, which many attribute to a lack of enthusiasm among opposition supporters. Despite efforts to boost participation, sympathy appears to lean more towards Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Political journalist Vivek Bhavsar suggests that anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP’s decade-long rule and perceptions of the party being anti-reservation have fueled this disenchantment. Statements from BJP leaders, such as Rajasthan’s deputy chief minister Diya Kumari’s remarks on ending the reservation system, have only intensified this perception among Dalits, Adivasis, Christians, and Muslims.
The breakup of Maharashtra’s regional parties, the Shiv Sena and the NCP, orchestrated by the BJP, has alienated many supporters. The appointment of Ajit Pawar, previously accused by PM Modi of a Rs 70,000-crore scam, as deputy chief minister has also damaged the BJP’s anti-corruption stance. Fielding tainted candidates who were previously investigated by the ED and CBI but switched allegiance to the BJP has further disillusioned voters.
Disagreements over seat-sharing between the BJP and Eknath Shinde’s faction have created additional friction. The BJP’s initial desire to contest 35 seats was met with resistance, leading to a compromise where the BJP contested 28 seats, Shiv Sena (Shinde) 15, and NCP (Ajit Pawar) five. The resulting bitterness has led to allies undermining each other, potentially affecting their electoral performance.
Bhavsar notes that the BJP aims to secure the 23 seats it won last time, plus Navneet Rana’s seat, who joined the BJP after winning as an Independent in 2019. Post-elections, the BJP plans to contest most of the 288 Assembly seats independently, offering Shinde only 40 seats.
Both factions of the Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray, are vying to prove their legitimacy. The Election Commission’s recognition of Shinde’s faction as the real Shiv Sena is contingent on support from a majority of MPs and MLAs. However, if Uddhav Thackeray’s faction performs well in the Lok Sabha elections, it could challenge Shinde’s legitimacy and bolster Thackeray’s position in future Assembly and BMC elections.
There is considerable sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray, whose dignified conduct contrasts with the more aggressive approach of the Shinde faction and the BJP. His compassionate handling of the migrant crisis during the 2020 lockdown has left a lasting impression, particularly among migrant workers from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
As the elections near, the BJP’s internal challenges and the evolving political landscape in Maharashtra suggest a turbulent path ahead for the Mahayuti alliance.