Come September 5, Dhupguri in West Bengal together with six other state Assembly segments in other parts of the country, will go for by-polls. But the by-election in this north Bengal constituency will be a field trial of sorts for the INDIA coalition as Congress is supporting a CPI(M) nominee in this electoral battle against Trinamool Congress though the three political parties are part of INDIA alliance cobbled together to take on the BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Incidentally, with a BJP nominee together with that of TMC and CPI(M) in the poll fray Dhupguri will witness a triangular contest. Moreover, this by-poll assumes greater significance as one INDIA constituent is supporting another coalition partner against a third opposing the BJP who is another contestant in this by-election. This will be the first test of the three INDIA constituents after the Bengaluru conclave in July this year. The Bengaluru meeting underlined the need for one for one candidate in the fight against the BJP.
There lies the rub as Congress, TMC and CPI(M) though part of the INDIA combine are ranged in a contest at Dhupguri which was necessitated a by-election following the death of BJP MLA Bishnupada Roy who was elected in 2021 assembly elections. It was TMC candidate Mitali Roy who emerged victorious in the earlier 2016 Assembly elections.
Having fielded Tapasi Roy, widow of a Pulwama martyr, the state saffron camp is seeking to underscore the division within the INDIA partners in this by-election. The CPI(M) candidate Ishwar Chandra Roy receiving support from the Congress against a TMC nominee is an indication of the “level of cohesion” between INDIA partners, former state BJP chief, Rahul Sinha said.
With an eye on 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP will highlight this issue in the by-poll campaign, Sinha said. The voters of Dhupguri will give a fitting reply when they exercise their franchise exposing the cracks of this “unprincipled alliance”, he added.
Given electoral arithmetic, fielding a CPI(M) nominee Ishwar Chandra Ray who happens to be a Rajbanshi, has been an astute move on part of the Left Front leadership as winners of 2016 and 2021 elections were from this community which has a considerable number of voters in this constituency reserved for scheduled caste nominees. But it has to contend with a shrinking support base given 2021 Assembly election results followed by the last month’s panchayat elections
The CPI(M) leadership sees no reason to give up as it had retained Dhupguri in 2011 Assembly elections. This assembly segment had withstood the winds of change in 2011 sweeping West Bengal which saw a TMC dispensation replacing a 34-year long Left Front regime.
Roy is a retired teacher and Bhawaiya singer and the by-poll is scheduled to be held on the Teacher’s Day.. The CPIM), though organizationally weak in the area, is depending on the personal appeal of the teacher candidate.
Moreover, Mamata Ray the CPI(M) nominee supported by the Congress had secured 34.3 per cent votes in 2016 elections indicating a front support base. But the Left support base shrunk in 2021 Assembly elections with CPI(M) nominee Pradip Kumar Roy losing his deposit.
In fact, even as BJP’s Bishnupada Roy getting 103,533 votes against TMC’s Mitali Roy who secured 99293 votes, CPI(M) nominee Pradip Roy trailed behind with only 12256 votes. The once strong vote bank of CPI(M) showed signs of big erosion.. That downhill journey continued in the latest rural polls..
Ruling out any likely fallout in the INDIA alliance arising from Dhupguri by-poll, a senior Left Front leader said that electoral understanding between the front and Congress had been in place long before the INDIA alliance against BJP-led NDA came about. There is good understanding between the Left and the Congress at the base level, he said.
Setting aside the fact that INDIA partners are pitted against each other, front chairman Biman Bose had called up state Congress chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury in this matter, according to front sources. It had been agreed upon that no contradiction with the INDIA alliance will surface if the CPI(M) nominee receives support from Congress against a TMC nominee in Dhupguri by-poll.
Our party does not see any contradiction with fielding a candidate in Dhupguri by-poll as it was our nominee who had won from it in 2016 election, state agriculture minister and veteran TMC leader, Sovandeb Chattopadhay said. After all, no rule have been laid out in INDIA’s meeting that it’s partners cannot contest against each other in what they consider to be their sphere of influence, he pointed out.
Our nominee had lost by a narrow margin in 2021, Chattopadhay said to underscore that Dhupguri is a part of TMC’s sphere of influence in the state. Nirmal Chandra Roy is our party nominee at Dhupguri and we have no intention to let go one of our support bases, he added.
The ruling dispensation of West Bengal is hopeful of wresting this seat from BJP in the by-poll. It’s hope is based not only on the slim margin of defeat it suffered in the 2021 elections but the lack of star campaigners in the saffron camp coupled with its sweeping victory in the panchayat elections.
Requesting anonymity, a senior TMC leader said that it was the presence of BJP’s leading lights like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah which persuaded many voters who would have voted for TMC in 2011 and 2016 elections to change their mind and Dhupguri was no exception.
Of 80 Gram Panchayat seats, 66 were won by TMC nominees in the July 8 rural poll scarred with violence. In all, eight seats were won by BJP while the remaining six ended in a tie. TMC candidates won all the nine seats of the panchayat samitis. The TMC bagged also all the 24 seats in the Zilla Parishad.
The election results will be out on September 8. By then, the third conclave of INDIA alliance would have been concluded in Mumbai on August 1 where the seat sharing formula of the INDIA constituents would have been taken up for discussions. The Congress high command will analyse the Dhupguri results in arriving at a decision on understanding with the TMC or the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. If the CPIM) candidate performs badly like the 2021 assembly elections, the Congress high command might consider the option of joining with the TMC in Bengal for 2024 Lok Sabha polls. That way, Dhupguri result is crucial for both the CPIM) and the Congress. (IPA Service)
By Tirthankar Mitra