The Aryavarth Express
Agency (New Delhi): The first five months of 2024 have seen India grappling with extreme weather events, including a severe heatwave in the north, destructive floods and landslides in the northeast, and an increasingly rare spring season. These conditions have sparked concern about the future trajectory of India’s climate.
The recent temperature spike to 52.9 degrees Celsius in Delhi has alarmed climate scientists, who warn that this summer could be the worst in 120 years for north India. Vimal Mishra, Vikram Sarabhai Chair Professor at IIT Gandhinagar, highlighted that such high temperatures over a vast, densely populated region are unprecedented.
Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist and professor at IIT-Bombay, explained that multiple factors, including climate change, El Nino, and the water vapor from the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption, have contributed to these extreme temperatures. He noted that the Middle East’s rapid warming and the urban heat island effect in Delhi have exacerbated the heatwave.
The impact of these extreme temperatures extends beyond discomfort. Studies link prolonged heatwaves to increased hospitalizations, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and economic repercussions like inflation and GDP decline. On May 29, when Delhi recorded its highest-ever temperature of 52.9 degrees Celsius in Mungeshpur, the city’s power demand peaked, and water shortages worsened.
Haryana’s Rohtak and Uttar Pradesh’s Prayagraj also saw record temperatures of 48.8 degrees Celsius, while Himachal Pradesh’s Una logged its highest temperature in 19 years. The northeastern states faced severe flash floods and landslides triggered by Cyclone Remal, affecting over 600,000 people.
Murtugudde pointed out that late-season cyclones, ocean warming, and shifting wind patterns due to El Nino contribute to these extreme weather events. The combination of a sweltering heatwave in the north and floods in the northeast was anticipated due to the usual climatic transitions in these regions.
Research by Climate Central indicates that climate change is shrinking India’s spring season, leading to quicker transitions from winter to summer. This trend is evident in northern states and is expected to spread to more regions.
Temperatures continued to soar in April, with above-normal highs in Rajasthan, Goa, and Mumbai. By late April, severe heatwave conditions spread across several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha, with temperatures 4-6 degrees above normal.
The World Weather Attribution group found that the ongoing heatwave in South and Southeast Asia is significantly intensified by climate change, making it 45 times more likely and nearly 1 degree Celsius hotter. April 2024 was the hottest April on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The current El Nino event is among the five strongest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Climate scientists advise caution for El Nino years and expect some cooling with the upcoming monsoon and predicted La Niña conditions, though not immediately.
Mishra expects the dry heat to persist into June with intermittent relief, while Murtugudde anticipates cooling over the coming year as the tropical Pacific Ocean absorbs heat. The urgent need for climate action is clear as India navigates these extreme weather challenges.