New Delhi (IPA Service): Nearly a week has passed since the holding of the Bengaluru conclave of the opposition parties which gave birth to the new front INDIA consisting of 26 anti-BJP parties. In the following days since July 18, the focus of both media and the BJP leaders has been on the differing nature of the constituents and how difficult itis to make a success of the seat sharing between the partners to defeat unitedly the BJP and the expanded NDA in the coming Lok Sabha polls scheduled in 2024.
Apparently, it may seem that it is an extremely difficult task to bring these parties into agreeing to an acceptable seat sharing formula but if one analyses the political situation from state to state, it will be clear that out of the 543 sets, the real problem of seat sharing will be limited to around 150 seats. In around 400 seats, the usual pattern is already in place and it will require a little fine tuning to decide on the arrangement.
Let me explain my analysis. Right now, as I see, the major problem of alliance talks will be in respect to Gujarat, Punjab, Delhi, Assam and the largest state of the country Uttar Pradesh. All these states together have 140 seats. Apart J& K has 6 seats which have to be negotiated among the three powerful INDIA partners Congress, National Conference and PDP. In Delhi and Punjab, the ruling AAP and the Congress together have the potential of defeating the BJP in most of the seats. AAP may think itself as a bigger political party as against the Congress in these two states, but in Lok Sabha polls, the Congress will get an advantage and AAP has to think about that if they are ready for negotiations.
At the same time, in Gujarat, the Congress has nil seat as again stall 26 belonging to BJP. There are no signs that the Congress has been able to substantially improve its support base as against the ruling BJP after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, whereas AAP has expanded into a number of cities in Gujarat. AAP is not a big force till now and the Congress remains the main party to take on BJP in Gujarat. A combination of the Congress and AAP against the BJP can ensure the reduction of seats from the BJP kitty. It will be a win situation for both because any new seat gained by INDIA is a jolt to the BJP as Gujarat is its fortress and the party depends heavily on its tally from this state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.
Uttar Pradesh with 80 seats poses the real problem for INDIA. Samajwadi Party and RLD are both active members of INDIA and it makes good political sense to have a total alliance with the Congress to fight the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. RLD is putting pressure on the SP to enter into alliance with the Congress. If Congress comes to an understanding with SP by taking account of its strength in the state, that may lead to some agreement. But the Congress leaders are waiting for the success of the second Bharat Yodo Yatra beginning September this year which will extensively cover UP districts. They think that they will talk to the SP only after seeing the impact of the Yatra on the political mood of the state since the Congress will have better bargaining position then.
In Assam, the Congress can act as the leading party of the INDIA front, but it has a tough task in arriving at a seat sharing formula along with Trinamool Congress, AIDUF, a few regional anti-BJP parties and also the two left parties CPI and the CPI(M) which have limited pockets of influence in the state. Negotiations will be a delicate affair in Assam and it will need real expertise and negotiating skills in arriving at an agreement.
There are four states, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Jharkhand and Maharashtra where the INDIA partners are already working in a coalition. The first three are ruling coalitions. The parameters are set, it will only need adjustments and some fine tuning This will be more in Maharashtra as both the Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar led NCP have been split with the majority MLAs joining the NDA. Congress with its 44 MLAs is now the biggest party of MVA. Naturally, the Congress will seek bigger share of the Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 polls. The differences will be cropping up, that has to be sorted out at the highest level of the leadership.
Now about the Congress which is the main national party taking on the BJP as the partner of INDIA. Congress will be the deciding party in respect to seat sharing in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattishgarh, Karnataka, Himachal, Haryana, Uttarkhand and the north eastern states excepting Tripura.. In some states where the Congress is decider, the SP, CPI and CPI(M) have some support base. The Congress has to consider how to make use of these INDIA partners support to ensure a total mobilization of INDIA against the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha also, the Congress will take on the BJP and the regional parties on its own. Both CPI and the CPI(M) are having pockets of influence in these three states. The Congress can explore the possibility of tie up with both the communist parties in these three states in the Lok Sabha elections. Though YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh and BJD in Odisha are not attached to any of the Fronts NDA or India, the BRS led Telangana belongs to a different category. Chief Minister K Chandrasekjhar Rao has officially said that BRS is not joining INDIA because of its main fight with the Congress in the coming assembly elections, but nationally, the BRS is against the BJP.
West Bengal and Kerala belong to a separate category. In Kerala, the present pattern of the Congress led UDF vs the CPI(M) led LDF will continue as the BJP has no seat among the 20Lok Sabha seats from Kerala. Whoever wins from UDF or LDF belongs to INDIA. In 2019elections, the LDF got only one seat while the UDF got 19 including 15bythe Congress. This time the LDF has to work very hard to improve its tally from Kerala. It is only from Kerala that the CPI(M) and the CPI can get more seats. But the competition is expected to be tough. The Congress cadres will get full advantage of the presence of Rahul Gandhi in the campaign. In the poll campaign for the next Lok Sabha, the Congress will turn it into the Congress vs. BJP for Lok Sabha elections. The LDF’s task will be tougher in combating that.
In Bengal, the CPI(M) has no Lok Sabha seat from the state while the Congress has two seats. There is every possibility that Mamata Banerjee will negotiate a national deal with the Congress on seat sharing. As part of it, the Trinamool will offer the Congress four seats out of the total of 42 seats while the Congress has to agree to two seats to TMC in Assam, one seat in Meghalaya and one seat in Manipur. Sources say that Mamata can even give 5 seats to the Congress in Bengal if the Congress high command agrees to its demand in the three NE states.
The Congress leadership is desperate for emerging as the party with a minimum 120 to 130 seats in the new Lok Sabha and they may eventually agree to a deal with Mamata. Banerjee. That will lead the Bengal CPI(M) to fightalone. Not only that in Tripura also, there is a problem. Presently, there is a Left- Congress alliance in Tripura and it fought the last assembly elections jointly. In the present Lok Sabha, all two seats belong to the BJP. Before 2019 elections, all through in the last two decades, the CPI(M) bagged these two seats.
Now the latest position is the tribals party Tipra Motha which has considerable strength in the assembly and is now staying unattached, is negotiating with both the BJP and the Congress. Pradyot Bikram Manikya Dev Varma the supremo of TM is not keeping well. He is mostly in Delhi for treatment. The Tipra Motha’s day to day work is being run by Bijoy Hrangkhawl who was the extremist tribal leader taking part in the movement in 1980s for separate tribal state. Sources say that TM is now interested in having negotiations with the Congress also to put pressure on the centre and the BJP.. So far, the discussions with BJP remain inconclusive, TM will play a key role in deciding the fate of the two Lok Sabha candidates. The Left Front has to monitor carefully how its partner the Congress behaves. In Tripura.
Then next conclave of INDIA is scheduled in Mumbai next month. By then, the monsoon session of the Parliament will be over and the INDIA constituents have proved their cohesion in Parliament session in focusing on the burning issues of the day. From the beginning of the session on July 20, the INDIA constituents have acted jointly in highlighting the plight of Manipur people. These joint actions will have to be taken forward in the coming days. The Mumbai meeting should work in a businesslike manner. The format for going ahead with discussions on seat sharing formula should get priority. There should not be any further delay as Prime Minister is known for giving surprises to people. He can opt for Lok Sabha elections by yearend or in January. INDIA has to be fully prepared for any eventuality. (IPA Service)
By Nitya Chakraborty