The Aryavarth Express
Agency (New Delhi): India is expected to receive above-average monsoon rains this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday, maintaining its forecast from April. This positive outlook holds promise for increased agricultural production and economic growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the IMD, stated in a virtual news conference that this year’s monsoon rains are anticipated to be 106% of the long-term average. The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season beginning in June.
The monsoon, which provides nearly 70% of the rainfall needed for crops and reservoirs, is crucial for India’s $3.5 trillion economy. Nearly half of India’s farmland, which lacks irrigation, relies on the June-September rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.
Ample rainfall could enhance farm output and overall economic growth, helping to reduce food price inflation, which has been above the central bank’s comfort level in recent months and has prevented cuts in lending rates.
Mohapatra indicated that the La Niña weather phenomenon, known for increasing rainfall in India, is expected to occur in July and September, boosting rainfall across the country. He noted that India’s southern states, known for rice and rubber cultivation, as well as the central states growing soybeans, pulses, cotton, and sugarcane, are likely to receive above-average monsoon rains.
However, key rice-growing states in the northeast may experience below-average rainfall. The previous year’s below-average rains depleted reservoirs and impacted food production, leading the government to impose export restrictions on sugar, rice, onions, and wheat. The resumption of exports will depend on the recovery of production, which hinges on sufficient monsoon rainfall in 2024.
India, being the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, rice, and sugar, and the largest importer of palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil, has a significant stake in the monsoon’s performance. The monsoon is forecasted to reach the Kerala coast by May 31.
While June is expected to see average rainfall, maximum temperatures are predicted to remain above normal. Northwestern India could face heat wave conditions for four to six days in June, compared to the usual three days.
The prospect of above-average monsoon rains brings hope for a robust agricultural season, potentially stabilizing food prices and contributing to economic stability in India.