The Aryavarth Express
Agency(New Delhi): A joint report by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Institute for Human Development (IHD) has stressed that there is “no alternative” for India but to pursue growth led by labour-intensive manufacturing for at least the next 10 years. This strategy is crucial to absorb the seven to eight million young people who will be joining the labour force each year. The report, titled “India Employment Report 2024,” was released on Tuesday and utilizes official data to highlight the increasing uncertainties in the labour market due to rapidly evolving technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI).
The report calls for prioritizing labour-intensive manufacturing employment to absorb the abundant unskilled labour, along with emerging employment-generating modern manufacturing and services sectors. It also emphasizes the need for a direct and greater focus on micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises by providing a more supportive and decentralized approach.
Investment in green (environment-friendly) and blue (based on ocean resources) economies, developing rural infrastructure, and establishing an integrated market are also highlighted as key factors to revive employment in the farm and non-farm sectors in rural areas.
The report acknowledges that AI could disrupt outsourcing in India, as some back-office tasks would be taken over by the technology. However, given India’s vibrant startup ecosystem, tech developers, and reasonably good digital infrastructure, there is potential for job creation. AI offers immense opportunities to enhance labour productivity and incomes, even for unskilled and semi-skilled workers. The report cautions that disadvantaged states are less prepared for this and calls for active policies and programs to train youth in those states.
India remains poised to reap a demographic dividend for at least another decade, with the youth population expected to remain at 23% of the total in 2036, down from 27% in 2021. However, youth employment has generally been of poorer quality compared to adult employment. Employed youth are more likely to be in vulnerable occupations (informal) or in the informal sector, with lower wages and earnings compared to adults.
The report also highlights the higher unemployment rates among educated youth, with the highest rates among those with a graduate degree or higher, particularly among women. In 2022, the unemployment rate among youth was six times higher for those with a secondary or higher level of education (18.4%) and nine times higher for graduates (29.1%) compared to those who cannot read and write (3.4%).
The report calls for regulating and investing in emerging care and digital economies to provide productive employment for the youth. While digital platforms and the gig economy are creating new jobs, these are largely temporary, informal, and non-standard work. The ongoing demographic transition is also expected to increase the demand for childcare and elderly care services.
Regarding the gig and platform economy, the report mentions that autonomy and flexibility are non-existent due to algorithmic management and control. The subjective and unfair nature of ratings used through algorithmic management in these platforms creates difficulties for workers, limiting their freedom and flexibility. The lack of transparency in AI-powered algorithmic decision-making poses a serious challenge in protecting working conditions and workers’ rights.