The Aryavarth Express
Agency (Kerala): The southwest monsoon has arrived early over Kerala and the northeastern region, marking the beginning of the crucial four-month rainy season essential for India’s agriculture-dependent economy. This rare simultaneous onset, occurring on May 30, 2024, has been noted only a few times before, specifically in 2017, 1997, 1995, and 1991.
Weather scientists suggest that cyclone Remal, which affected West Bengal and Bangladesh recently, may have influenced the early monsoonal flow to the Bay of Bengal, contributing to the early onset over the northeast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the advance of the southwest monsoon into most parts of northeast India, including Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Assam.
Historically, the earliest recorded onset of the monsoon over Kerala was on May 18, 1990. Other early onsets include May 22, 1999, and May 23 in both 1974 and 2009. Typically, the monsoon onset date for Kerala is June 1, and for the northeastern states, it is June 5. However, Kerala has already experienced heavy rainfall over the past few days, resulting in surplus rainfall for May.
The IMD declares the onset of monsoon over Kerala when more than 14 stations in the state and neighboring areas record 2.5 mm or more rainfall for two consecutive days after May 10, along with low Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and southwesterly wind direction.
The monsoon season is critical for India, with 52% of the net cultivated area depending on these rains. It also replenishes reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation across the country. June and July are particularly vital months for agriculture, as most Kharif crop sowing occurs during this period.
Currently, El Nino conditions are present, with La Nina possibly setting in by August-September. El Nino, characterized by the periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, is often linked to weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. Conversely, La Nina typically brings abundant rainfall during the monsoon season.