The Aryavarth Express
Agency (New Delhi): Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s top political adversary put behind bar with announcement of Lok Sabha Election is finally out in the electoral battlefield on the closing day of fourth phase of election campaign. Though he will have only few hours to campaign for the fourth phase of election scheduled on May 13, he will have complete campaign period in his hand for the next three phases of election, which poses a strategic challenge to PM Narendra Modi and BJP . With Kejriwal out from detention, the opposition election machinery is auto-reset to best performance mode, which is a new trouble for PM Narendra Modi who has reset his election machinery to optimum performance mode after perceiving significant losses in the first three phases of elections.
Election to the 96 Lok Sabha constituencies is scheduled for May 13, and with that polls on 379 constituencies out of 543 will be over. Thereafter, election to the 164 seats will be held in the next three final phases, which will be crucial for both PM Narendra Modi as a leader of BJP and as most probable next prime minister and Arvind Kejriwal as AAP leader. BJP’s present predicament stems from a bleak electoral prospect in the first three phases in which the party is likely to win just around half of its tally in 2019 election.
Moreover, the states where elections are to be held in the next four phases include the states where Arvind Kejriwal and opposition political parties of INDIA bloc are important political factors. A total of 21 seats in Bihar, 10 in Haryana, 4 in Himachal Pradesh, 10 in Jharkhand, 13 in Punjab, 17 in Odisha, 41 in Uttar Pradesh, 24 in West Bengal, 1 in Chandigarh, 7 in Delhi, 2 in Jammu and Kashmir and 1 in Ladakh would poll in the next three phases.
Kejriwal’s appearance in electoral battlefield has booted the morale of the opposition up. So far, under the ED’s and central investigating agencies’ swords, all opposition political parties were gripped into a fear of being raided, arrested, and put behind bar under draconian laws. Just two days ahead of possible interim bail hearing on May 7, another terror funding case through NIA was ordered so that Kejriwal could be kept in jail. Survival of AAP as political party is also at stake now, since it is for the first time in the history of India when a political party has been named in money laundering and funded by terrorist organization cases. Kejriwal’s interim bail has emboldened the opposition leaders in general and AAP leaders in particular, which are now automatically gravitating together for a united struggle and attack on PM Narendra Modi during the next phases of election.
“Vote against the dictator” is Kejriwal’s slogan now. His appearance in electoral battlefield will have direct bearing on Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana polls, and everywhere in the country where there are Sikh population. It is chiefly because the latest allegation against Kejriwal is that he had received fund from a terrorist organization, Sikh for Justice. PM Modi has been trying to woo Sikh voters for quite some time. During the farmers’ agitation of 2020-21, AAP was projected as sympathizer of Sikh farmers while agitating farmers were alleged to have been receiving funds from foreign terrorist organization. Later, PM Modi had withdrawn the three controversial farm laws on the occasion of Guru Nanak Jayanti in 2021. One can just see political impact of this in Punjab election 2022 in which AAP swept the poll and formed its government.
In February last, farmers of Punjab again launched their agitation demanding legal guarantee for MSP and fulfilment of unmet assurances given by PM Narendra Modi in 2021. However, BJP led Haryana government ruthlessly suppressed their agitation. Though Punjab farmers were not allowed to enter Haryana, farmers, Sikhs, and Punjabis of the state got angry. It resulted into removal of Manohar Lal Khattar as Chief Minister, and the new chief minister Nayab Singh Saini has been reduced to minority in less then two months. NDA has broken in the state, and there is large scale resentment of people against the BJP.
Against PM Modi’s and BJP’s expectation of INDIA block falling apart, Congress and AAP made alliance in Delhi and Haryana, where the BJP had won all 7 and 10 seats respectively. Both the parties have an alliance also in Chandigarh which was also won by BJP in 2019. With Kejriwal in the electoral battlefield, PM Modi will have very difficult time in retaining all the 18 seats. AAP has dominance in Punjab, and BJP will find it difficult to retain the two seats it had won in 2019 out of 13. BJP’s ally in Punjab SAD has already deserted NDA. BJP has thus bleak prospects in 31 Lok Sabha seats on account of Congress-AAP alliance.
With a significant boost in their morale, the opposition Congress will be offering tougher challenge in Himachal Pradesh, and on the rest of the seat in Madhya Pradesh. SP-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh, Congress-RJD-Left alliance in Bihar, and Congress-JMM-Left alliance in Jharkhand has come in the electoral battle with renewed vigour after Supreme Court’s interim bail to Kejriwal. In West Bengal, TMC has already offering big challenge to BJP’s electoral prospects, while BJD is not far behind in putting strong obstacles before PM Narendra Modi’s election machinery. In Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh also, BJP is not comfortable. Kejriwal’s interim bail has made the opposition resurgent to the much frustration of the RSS-BJP clan and PM Narendra Modi. It is to be seen what strategic shift, PM and the BJP take to meet the new challenge of resurgent Arvind Kejriwal in the next four phases of the 18thLokSabha polls. (IPA Service)
By Dr. Gyan Pathak