Aryavarth - Notwithstanding the hype being built around Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming official state visit to the United States, it would be wrong to expect any major economic benefit to India as a result of the trip. On top of the agenda are the strategic issues which concern both the US and India. Narendra Modi’s first state visit to the US during his nine-year long reign as India’s prime minister appears to be more in acknowledgement of his strong strategic cooperation and collaboration with the US to contain the expansionist communist regime of China, the world’s second largest economy and a formidably growing global military power, than anything else. China is a common enemy of both the US and India.
Under this perspective, the US would like to further strengthen strategic and military cooperation with India, the world’s fourth largest military power. Interestingly, just weeks ahead of Narendra Modi’s state visit, a US Congressional Committee has recommended the inclusion of India in the “NATO Plus” group to further boost the global US defence cooperation. It is not clear if the matter will come up — formally or informally — during the discussion between the Indian prime minister and US President Joe Biden at the White House. External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has said India will not be a part of the NATO Plus. But, diplomacy is dynamic. It changes with time and situation. India’s position may change in due course as the US stand on Narendra Modi or Saudi Arabia’s perception on Israel shifted in recent times.
In fact, it may look rather unusual for the US to take a complete U turn on Narendra Modi, a former Gujarat chief minister, who was barred from entering the US in 2005 for failing to stop anti-Moslem riots in his state. He was the only person ever denied a US visa based on a little-known law on religious freedom. Hindu nationalist Modi could not obtain a US visa just as he was preparing to travel to New York to address Indian-Americans at a rally scheduled in Madison Square Garden. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s earlier visits to the US were classified as a working visit (2014), working lunch (2016) and official working visit (2017). His 2019 visit was described by the US State Department website as one in which he “Participated in a rally in Houston, Texas”.
However, time changes. And, so are government policies and views. There is nothing quizzical about the latest changes in the US policy as Narendra Modi becomes the third world leader to be invited for a state visit by Biden after French President Emmanuel Macron late last year and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in April. Modi is now the world’s most sought after political leader after Xi Jinping, president of the People’s Republic of China. India’s armed forces are the world’s fourth largest after the US, Russia and China. If Russia and China get strategically closer, the US and India would need each other to protect their own strategic interest.
In this context, the idea of making India a member of the currently five-nation ‘NATO Plus’ grouping by the US could be a tricky issue for India as it is bound to upset Russia, India’s strategic ally since the 1970s. China’s response could be even angry. The new US-led defence-oriented NATO Plus group consists of all NATO members and five other countries: Australia, Japan, Israel, New Zealand, and South Korea. India’s inclusion in the NATO Plus is being suggested to counter China and enhance the deterrence for Taiwan. The US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is a military alliance of 31 nations. Behind the US ploy to invite India to be a part of this larger group may be to make it extra strong and to stand together against US adversaries such as China and Russia. NATO’s motto is simple: “One for all and all for one”. Basically, it means if one NATO member is attacked, the aggressor will face the combined wrath of all the NATO members.
Obviously, if India joins NATO Plus, it will receive massive military support from the organisation in case it is attacked by India’s strong adversaries such as China and Pakistan. India is also expected to gain access to military technology advancements and intelligence sharing between NATO countries. However, as things stand now, India, the biggest user of the Russian arms system, nuclear technology and crude oil, is unlikely to fall for such an offer immediately.
More than anything else, Narendra Modi’s visit is expected to further cement the strategic relations between the US and India. It is likely to enhance trade in critical technologies such as semiconductors, telecommunications, space, quantum, artificial intelligence (AI), defence and biotechnology. India and the US are setting up a regular monitoring group to review progress in deepening cooperation in the bilateral high-tech trade and technology partnership. Lately, the two countries reviewed ongoing cooperation in multilateral export control regimes and agreed to share best practices. Will Modi seek US cooperation in defence manufacturing in India as the country has been pursuing such tie-ups with Russia, France, Italy and Germany?
Last week, top defence officials from the US and India met in Delhi to discuss the need for boosting defence cooperation between the two countries. India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh tweeted that the talks with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin included “convergence of strategic interests and enhanced security cooperation.” Rajnath Singh said: “India-US partnership is critical for ensuring a free, open and rules-bound Indo-Pacific region….. We look forward to closely working with the US across the domains for capacity building and further consolidating our strategic partnership.” Lloyd Austin said that his Indian counterpart “has helped pave the way for deeper collaboration, joint exercises, and technology sharing between our two countries.”
Narendra Modi’s official discussion with President Biden and his team may centre mainly around strategic cooperation between the two countries in each other’s interest while the two leaders are expected to review the growing bilateral cooperation in various other areas of mutual interest, including technology, trade, industry, education, research, clean energy, defence, security, healthcare, and deepening people-to-people connections. They are also expected to explore ways to strengthen India-US collaboration in multilateral fora, including in the G20. They would reflect on their shared vision for a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific and opportunities to expand and consolidate the Quad (quadrilateral dialogue) engagement involving two other nations — Japan and Australia. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the state visit is expected to enhance his personal profile before the country as also of his party’s image ahead of the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. (IPA Service)
By Nantoo Banerjee
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