(Aryavarth) The weather is unpleasant in central India these days, with sudden bursts of storms and rain adding humidity to the high temperatures. The same holds true for the political atmosphere here in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh where elections are due in five months.
The BJP and Congress are preparing to battle it out once again in the two states, which are largely bipolar. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said his party would win 150 seats ( of the total 230) in Madhya Pradesh, just like it did in Karnataka. The BJP has adopted a resolution about winning more than 200 seats. In Chattisgarh, Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel has repeatedly spoken about the Congress’ aim to hold on to its current tally of 71 seats, whereas the BJP claims that it would win a clear majority.
Political watchers feel that Madhya Pradesh will see a tight contest, with the Congress in a far better position compared with 2018 and the BJP facing anti-incumbency and internal dissent. They say the Congress might actually have an edge over the BJP at this point, while the BJP’s biggest hope is Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popularity. As far Chattisgarh, the Congress government riding high on its welfare schemes and the Chattisgarh pride factor, is placed comfortably against the surprisingly demoralized BJP. In both states, the selection of candidates will be crucial.
Political commentator Rashid Kidwai said the uncharacteristic aggression shown by the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, evident from Rahul Gandhi himself claiming 150 seat, was quite interesting. “The party seems encouraged by Karnataka results and it sees similarities in Madhya Pradesh-–anti incumbency against the BJP, several local issues to raise and a seasoned leader in Kamal Nath. There is no major internal strife. Karnataka has shown that some of the steps taken by the BJP, like making a tribal President are not working”, he said
The BJP is roiled by internal strife. Ticket seekers in the crucial Gwalior-Chambal region are major headache for the party. Kidwai said those who lost in 2018 to Congress leaders who defected to the BJP and got re-elected from same seats would want their seats back. “There are rumours that Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, whose defection was instrumental in the formation of BJP government in 2020, might be seeking tickets for 50-60 supporters. Such internal strife is something the BJP is not used to.
There is also no clarity about continuation of V.D. Sharma, as state BJP chief as he seems to have failed in checking internal dissent. “Chouhan is depending on personal charisma and new schemes, but the Congress is quick to find counters. The Congress also looks confident and aggressive under Kamal Nath,” said political analyst Manish Dixit. He said former Chief Minister Digvijaya Singh was working in the background, especially in the 66 seats that the Congress failed to win in the last three times. “The Congress is also pinning its hope on the second phase of Bharat Jodo Yatra,” said Dixit.
The BJP’s biggest strength is Chouhan, while the Congress has a big advantage with Kamal Nath’s leadership. “Both parties will do well to give their local leadership the upper hand which seems to have worked in other state elections,” said political analyst Girija Shanker. “Voters rely more on local leadership for getting their aspiration fulfilled. Too much interference from or dependence on national leadership could actually be harmful.”
Kidwai said the Congress was better placed in Chattisgarh, as there was no one like Chouhan in the BJP camp. Shankar, too, said the race appeared to be one-sided. The existing seat difference—Congress’ 71 against the BJP’s 14—is too wide a gap, especially in the absence of charismatic local leaders. Baghel, meanwhile, has established himself as the ‘son of soil’ and has become adept in playing up ‘Chhattisgarhi’ identity and pride.
Chattisgarh BJP chief spokesperson Ajay Chandrakar said that the Congress perception in favour of the Congress was a result of a huge public relations exercise,, while the BJP was active on the ground. “We will simultaneously conduct a mega contact campaign on the completion of nine years of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi and also kisan chaupals (meaning with farmers) till June 10 in all assembly segments”.
The Congress said Baghel government had fulfilled over 90 per cent of the elector promises and also brought in additional schemes. “Our government worked in health and education sectors and took care of basic needs by providing subsidized rice through ration shops”, said Sushil Anand Shukla, chairman, communications department, Chattisgarh Congress. He explained how Baghel managed to revive the culture and identity pride of Chattisgarh, and also worked on religious project like Ram Van Gaman Path scheme. (IPA Service)
By Harihar Swarup
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