The Aryavarth Express
Agency (Haryana): BJP suffered serious political tremors having epicentre in Haryana on Tuesday which broke the NDA and the chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar had to resign. It’s a serious political development in the country at a time when BJP and PM Narendra Modi have been seeking third term in the Lok Sabha election 2024. BJP had won all 10 seats from the state in Lok Sabha election 2019, but this development has made retaining these seats highly uncertain.
This is the first casualty of the farmers movement. This led BJP government of the state led by ML Khattar to ruthlessly suppress the farmers’ agitation as well as impudent and arrogant attitude towards its own allies Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) led by Deputy Chief Minister Dushyant Chautala.
Farmers of the state were angry with BJP-JJP alliance, and Dushyant Chautala, out of fear of losing its support base tried deftly to distance itself by unreasonably demanding two seats to contest, while BJP naturally wanted to contest on all 10 seats of the state it has presently. PM Narendra Modi had claimed that BJP would win 370 seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election and NDA 405, but Haryana development has cast shadow on even retaining its 303 seats that the party had won in 2019.
This development signals that NDA alliance partners are not ready to submit to the BJP leadership, and has been making very hard bargain during seat-sharing talks. Earlier, we have seen hard bargaining by BJP allies in Maharashtra and Bihar, apart from stiff talks with BJD of Odisha, and TDP of Andhra Pradesh. State BJP leaderships are also not willing to easily submit to the whims and fancies of Modi-Shah duo this time, as seen in the revolt of Odisha BJP unit that said that they would have no alliance with BJP. Though certain BJP leaders chose to quietly leave the political scene, many others are ready to protest any injustice to them or their supporters in ticket distribution.
Resignation of the Chief Minister ML Khattar has a special significance for the state since Vidhan Sabha elections are also scheduled after the Lok Sabha election. In the Vidhan Sabha election 2019, out of 90 seats in the state, BJP had won 40, Congress 31, Jannayak Janta Party 10, Independents 7, Haryana Lokhit Party 1, and Indian National Lok Dal 1. BJP, the party that had won all the 10 seats in the Lok Sabha election only a few months ago riding on Pulwama wave, fell short of majority and hence it had to form NDA government with the help of JJP.
Another special feature of those two elections were that BJP had bagged 58.31 per cent of votes in Lok Sabha election, but could get only 36.49 per cent of votes in Vidhan Sabha election, indicating that Pulwama wave had subsided within a couple of months. Vote share of the Congress remained almost stagnant around 28 per cent, but JJP’s vote share increased from mere 4.9 per cent to 14.84 per cent. Congress has been resurgent thereafter, and farmers’ agitation has dampened the political prospects of both JJP and INLD.
In the outgoing Vidhan Sabha, BJP has 41 MLAs, Congress 30, JJP 10, Independents 7 and INLD and HLP one each. Independents are supporting BJP and hence, there may not be immediate threat to the Khattar government numerically now, and it has been reported that BJP can form a new government. Nevertheless, the Haryana development brings ominous portent to the BJP and PM Narendra Modi for their returning to power at the Centre for the third term. If Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections were not held simultaneously, state election would be held in October 2024.
JJP wanted to contest from Hisar and Bhiwani Lok Sabha Constituencies. JJP leader Dushyant Chautala met the BJP president JP Nadda in new Delhi on March 11, where he was told that BJP would not be sharing any seat with JJP. There was also a scheduled meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah on March 11, but was cancelled. Now in a show of strength JJP is going to hold a public meeting in Hisar on March 13.
With Congress and AAP alliance in Haryana, BJP will have to fight a tough battle in retaining its seats, especially when BJP’s vote share has declined sharply and has become very unpopular among farmers which is also likely to impact the political fortune of JJP which has been a partner of BJP.
By past experience, we know that PM Narendra Modi replaces the unpopular BJP leaders. There is therefore every possibility that both the state BJP leadership and several of the sitting BJP candidates may be replaced. BJP hopes that it could save BJP from double anti-incumbency, but the ground political reality suggests otherwise. Haryana political development signals that BJP will have to suffer similar political tremors in several states of the country. (IPA Service)
By Dr. Gyan Pathak