The Aryavarth Express New Delhi, April 6: India’s telecom sector is expected to witness steady growth in Q4FY26, driven by rising average revenue per user (ARPU), continued subscriber additions, and a supportive pricing environment, according to a report by Centrum.
The report noted that improving ARPU will be a key performance driver for telecom operators, with a projected sequential increase of around 1% quarter-on-quarter. This growth is expected to be supported by the ongoing migration of users from 2G to 4G and 5G networks, along with an increase in postpaid subscribers.
Market dynamics continue to favour larger players. Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio are likely to expand their subscriber base, while Vodafone Idea may continue to lose market share. Reliance Jio is projected to add about 5 million users, while Bharti Airtel could see additions of around 6.5 million subscribers. In contrast, Vodafone Idea may lose roughly 1 million users during the same period.
The report also highlighted strong data consumption trends, driven by increasing penetration of 4G and 5G services. Both Jio and Airtel have expanded their 5G networks to cover over 90% of districts, supporting higher data usage per customer.
On pricing, the sector is entering a more favourable phase. With a limited number of operators in the market, another round of tariff hikes is anticipated, with increases of 12–15% expected by July 2026.
Emerging segments such as 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) and fixed broadband are also providing growth opportunities, aided by low penetration levels and rising demand.
Among telecom companies, Bharti Airtel is expected to maintain industry-leading ARPU levels, while Reliance Jio’s growth is likely to be driven by expansion in 5G FWA services. Vodafone Idea’s future performance, however, will depend on its ability to raise funds and execute planned capital expenditure.
Overall, the report maintains a positive outlook for the sector, citing ARPU growth and improved return ratios as key drivers, with a preference for Bharti Airtel and Indus Towers among telecom players.
