The Aryavarth Express:
Karachi [Pakistan]:As tensions escalate between Iran and the United States, concerns are mounting in Pakistan over the potential economic and social fallout. Experts warn that a breakdown in ongoing negotiations could push the country into deeper instability.
Karachi-based senior journalist Shams Kerio, in a recent interview, expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the current talks, which are primarily focused on Iran’s nuclear programme. He noted that recent developments, including alleged military actions during the negotiation process, have undermined trust. Questioning the credibility of such engagements, he asked what guarantees exist to prevent similar actions in the future.
Kerio emphasized that conflict is not a viable solution and urged both sides to return to meaningful dialogue. According to him, Iran is seeking credible assurances to rebuild confidence in the negotiation process, stressing that lasting solutions can only emerge through diplomacy.
Highlighting the implications for Pakistan, Kerio warned that the country’s already fragile economy could face severe strain if tensions escalate further. Heavy reliance on regional trade and oil imports makes Pakistan particularly vulnerable to disruptions, which could lead to rising inflation and broader economic instability.
He also pointed to structural challenges within Pakistan’s economy, including high government expenditure and limited financial reserves. In such a scenario, he suggested that stricter fiscal management and reduced public spending would be essential to control inflationary pressures.
Rising fuel prices, Kerio added, would hit the poorest segments the hardest. Daily wage earners are already under pressure, and further increases in petrol prices could worsen food insecurity and unemployment. Key sectors such as agriculture and industry are also facing mounting stress due to higher input costs.
Kerio cautioned that a prolonged conflict could expand beyond the region, potentially drawing in global powers like Russia and China, increasing the risk of a wider international crisis.
“If the conflict continues, Pakistan’s economy could face collapse due to weak reserves and poor financial accountability,” he warned, noting that the burden would ultimately fall on ordinary citizens.
However, he expressed cautious optimism that a peaceful resolution remains possible. Successful negotiations, he said, could stabilize the region and allow for gradual economic recovery.
Kerio concluded by stressing that meaningful progress depends on sincerity and trust, particularly from the United States, adding that sustained dialogue remains the only path to peace.
